Gil Troy

Beware: the Durban Delirium Trumped the Essential Lessons of 9/11

By Gil Troy, published in Australia/Israel & Jewish Affairs Council.

Electoral outlook

Cloudy and stormy, but with bursts of sunshine too

Israel seems to be on the precipice – yet again. Counting down to Election Day, October 27, the internal divisions seem deeper and deeper, while the dilemmas feel more and more vexing. New parties keep forming, controversies keep intensifying, and the world’s disdain keeps escalating.
 

It’s remarkable that Israel’s current government has survived for four years. Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu’s right-religious coalition is now the lamest of ducks, having lost its majority after religious parties revolted over the seemingly insoluble Haredi (ultra-Orthodox) draft dilemma. Its term began with a searing debate over judicial reform that so weakened the country internally, with far left and far right behaving so badly, it helped convince Hamas – and its Iranian masters – that here was the once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to take down the Zionist enemy.
 

The result was October 7’s depredations, and these seemingly endless wars, despite Netanyahu’s repeated declarations of victory. Dripping with Jew-hatred, Hamas proudly broadcast to the world the rapes, the maiming, the abuses, the kidnappings, the mass murders of October 7. Then, Hezbollah began launching rockets into Israel and has now fired more than 12,400 since Oct. 8. Then, the evil regime in Iran targeted Israeli civilians with massive ballistic missile barrages, while killing over 35,000 of its own people – and aggressively pursuing nuclear status. Yet, little, targeted Israel is not only detested by masses all over the world, not only is antisemitism spiking globally and turning violent, from Bondi Beach to Washington, DC, but the word “genocide” has been affixed to Israel, as even seemingly responsible Western leaders echo the lie and repudiate the Jewish State.
 

Meanwhile, despite presiding over the worst disaster in modern Israeli military history, after arguably launching the most ill-conceived, self-sabotaging reform initiative in Israel’s short domestic life, the Netanyahu Government keeps resisting any kind of serious, objective commission of inquiry. 
 

Moreover, this government seems unable to govern straight. Violence is soaring in Arab communities. A small number of settlers keep harassing some West Bank Palestinians so aggressively that the world ignores Palestinian terror in the territories. The Tel Aviv stock market is booming but many Israelis cannot keep up with the rising cost of living. And too many political leaders, left and right, prefer demonising their rivals to uniting the nation.
 

Here, then, is the Israeli electoral agenda. Most Israelis are seeking some calm. Reporters covering this election emphasise settlers, Haredim, clashing personalities, and the outside wars – but many Israelis add internal quality of life and standard of living questions too.
 

Anyone confident in predicting the outcome today is delusional, perhaps exhibiting Messianic signs of Jerusalem Syndrome [a delusional mental illness that afflicts some visitors to the holy city – Ed.]. First, Israel is still held hostage to outside forces. Imagine, God forbid, a wave of Iranian ballistic missiles doing actual damage in the days before the election. Or, alternatively, fantasise about Iran suddenly imploding economically and politically. Those are merely two of dozens of scenarios that could reset the electoral map overnight – in all kinds of directions.
 

Second, assess the polls carefully, but also sceptically. Israel, this experiment in Jewish democracy, has a 120-seat Knesset, and a parliamentary system requiring a majority of 61 to rule. In late August, polls predicted former IDF Chief-of-Staff Gadi Eisenkot’s new Yashar Party attracting the peak number of seats in this electoral cycle so far… 25. That means that the leading political party barely attracts 21% of votes and of available Knesset mandates. It seems most likely that the leading party waking up after a victory party on Oct. 28 will face weeks of difficult, confusing, high-stakes, rock‘n’roll coalition bargaining. Remember, in 2021, the prime minister who unseated Netanyahu – albeit temporarily – was Naftali Bennett, who had won only seven seats. And by the day of his swearing-in, his party was down to six seats. 
 

Finally, another sobering political statistic. Despite repeatedly tallying up how many seats the Government seems to be holding and how many the Opposition is attracting, Israeli politics contends with two wild-card blocs with their own agendas. Arab-majority parties are attracting 12 to 15 seats in most polls, while Haredi parties seem destined to get at least 15 seats. That makes getting a majority government, especially a Zionist majority government representing the mainstream consensus that everyone should serve in the military or alternative national service, even harder to achieve.
 

For those in the ABB – Anybody But Bibi – camp, this arithmetic is particularly discouraging. If you won’t go into coalition with Netanyahu, and you won’t go in with Haredim, and you won’t go in with the Arab parties, your chances of getting a governing majority plummet – especially because you won’t go in with the bigoted right-winger Itamar Ben-Gvir either. Of course, some in the ABB camp could go in with some Arab parties – the Naftali Bennett-Yair Lapid coalition Government included Ra’am, the United Arab List, led by Mansour Abbas. And despite too many bigots yelling about the Arabs undermining Israel’s security, no one has made a convincing case that from June 13, 2021 through Dec. 29, 2022, the pragmatic Abbas or his colleagues did anything to weaken Israel’s justified attempts at self-defence over that time.  

Despite these numerical conundrums, most members of the anti-Bibi bloc are feeling encouraged. Eisenkot has been polling extraordinarily well. In some polls, a peak of 52% of Israelis now prefer him as prime minister (compared to 38% choosing Netanyahu), as his party holds the lead. Eisenkot has run a cautious campaign. He prefers to exude a calm that promises to reset the tone of the government, without detailing a program that most Israelis can summarise, let alone cheer. He also may do far better on Election Day, when many fellow Moroccans and Mizrahim [Israeli Jews whose ancestors hail from the Middle East and North Africa – Ed.], in the privacy of the secret Israeli democratic voting booth, decide to choose one of “their own” as prime minister for the first time.
 

By contrast, Netanyahu seems to be panicking. Recently, his camp released a truly despicable ad, showing Eisenkot running in a meadow, bypassing a young man – who eerily resembles Eisenkot’s late son, killed while fighting this war – to embrace Mansour Abbas. Bibi’s camp also released another pathetic ad, suggesting that a Tel Aviv mum who rushes to school to protect her son from bullying, realises her “Rak Lo Bibi” – Anybody But Bibi – posters are also inexcusable. Most voters don’t want to vote for weak whiners out of pity – or fear-mongers peddling bigotry. They want strong, proud leaders who can solve Israel’s many problems.
 

At the same time, Binyamin Netanyahu is as resilient as a kangaroo in crisis. He has repeatedly bounced back when facing hostile political environments, and knows how to pivot, adapt, and keep on churning. 

So, four important rules for observing these elections. 
 

First, don’t just see the clash in binary terms as Netanyahu versus Eisenkot, or the opposition versus the coalition. Use peripheral vision to track other players, rival parties, the two non-Zionist blocs (Haredim and Arabs), and the many obstacles blocking the road to an electoral majority, for any winner.
 

Second, don’t just view all the shouting and the individual voting decisions being made through the lens of the wars or the headlines. Watch bread-and-butter issues, especially the frustrations of reservists and their families, as well as the growing fury of the vast Israeli majority who don’t benefit from the hi-tech boom which feeds the Israeli economy, but also risks distorting political perceptions.
 

Third, recognise the core consensus about defining security issues uniting Netanyahu, Eisenkot and most of Israel’s mainstream. Most don’t question Israel’s need to fight aggressively after October 7 and restore the balance of fear, whereby our enemies worry about us more than we worry about them. All are appalled by the genocide libel and the worldwide campaign demonising Israel – which, regrettably, is alive and well in Australia. And most recognise that the delight most Palestinians took in October 7, as well as the ongoing Palestinian terrorism in the territories, and the massive Palestinian campaign to libel Israel, mock those outsiders who keep calling for a two-state solution. How many times do Palestinians and their enablers have to call “from the river to the sea” or celebrate Jewish deaths before the world recognises their rejection of any kind of constructive solution? 
 

Finally, look beyond the “this is the most important election of our lifetimes” rhetoric and the do-or-die, my way or the highway hysteria. Israelis have proven themselves in these last three years to be even more resilient than Bibi-the-bounceback king. Israelis have demonstrated their grit, their solidarity, their patriotism, their sense of purpose. And, as we enter the High Holiday season in mid-September, Israelis will once again live their values, their traditions, their families, their joy, their exuberance. 
 

So, yes, these elections, occurring amidst ongoing wars and instability, may place Israel in the top ten list of countries under stress over the next two months. But all the politics, no matter how brutish and nasty, won’t dislodge Israelis from their consistent ranking in the top ten of countries filled with the world’s happiest and most purposeful, mission-driven people (and the two are actually often synonymous).
 

Call it Zionism – challenged, evolving, changing history – and vindicated.